We should be based on green development and open development concept plan for China's energy security strategy for solar powered portable generator under the new situation, establish a security of supply, the price of security, ecological security, network security as the main content of the new energy security concept, to create a modern energy security system, improve China's energy supply capacity, regulatory capacity demand, the ability to cope with risk and affect the ability of the international market as the focal point, established to protect China's energy security strategy objectives.
Beginning of this century in the United States, "shale revolution" changed the pessimistic estimates of gas reserves, particularly the huge shale gas reserves, so that human use of cleaner natural gas instead of coal and oil as possible. Began in the second half of 2014, international oil prices fell sharply as an important turning point for a new round of world energy change. The next few years or even longer period, international gas prices will volatile in the low run, climate change will be more severe pressure, new technologies, energy and the depth of integration of information in the field of global energy will gradually from coal and oil to clean low carbon energy conversion, supply and consumption structure will appear major changes.
International Energy Development New Situation
(A) International gas prices will volatile in the low running in the next few years or even longer period
Since the second half of 2014, less than a year and a half, the international oil prices from US $ 108 / barrel below to $ 30 / barrel, fell rate more than 70%, accompanied by sharp price fluctuations. On the one hand, global gas demand growth slowed, the overall excess supply. On the other hand, the flexibility to invest US shale gas projects, lead to frequent price fluctuations for gas production . And large-scale investment and long payback period different from conventional gas development, shale oil and gas investment flexible, short payback period in months. In the current technical conditions, invest break-even point of US shale gas projects around $ 40 / barrel.
(B) The world demand for gas center of gravity "Eastward" and supply center of gravity "Westward"
On the one hand, "the Asia-Pacific zone crescent" lead the gas consumption. From the development trend view to look world consumption of gas, since the late 1980s, the focus of the world's gas demand gradually shifted towards emerging economies. Especially since the 2008 financial crisis, global oil consumption growth is slowing down, where consumption in North America, Europe, crude oil declined, while oil consumption in China, India, represented by the emerging economies are showing rapid growth situation. On the other hand, Canada, United States, Venezuela, Brazil and other countries constitute the "American crescent" of gas supply map shape. As technology advances, increasingly diversified gas supply, the rapid development of the American continent in the field of gas, unconventional gas resources has become an important source of energy supply for portable solar power generator.
In the United States, "shale revolution" influence, the US natural gas production has ranked first in the world, second only to oil production in Russia and Saudi Arabia, ranking third in the world. The potential of Canada's oil sands, heavy oil Venezuela, deep sea salt in Brazil and Argentina under oil shale gas released gradually formed a "crescent-American" territory gas supply from these countries constituted the Americas, in terms of its global gas supply the proportion is growing, becoming the fastest-growing gas in addition to the Middle East region, the Middle East has changed the traditional-based global gas supply map. "Shale revolution" can make America energy independent early realization of the strategic objectives, but also in its leading role in global governance offers great strategic space, but also have a profound impact on the global energy governance pattern.
(C) The development of green energy has become a global consensus, low-carbon clean is the tendency.
Since 1992 UNCED, the global low carbon, sustainable development has made considerable progress. On the one hand, statistics show that over the past 20 years, global renewable energy development from the early to enter the phase of rapid growth. In 2015 the global hydropower, wind power, solar power, the cumulative installed capacity respectively of over one billion kilowatts, 400 million kilowatts and 200 million kilowatts.
By 2015, despite the sharp decline in fossil energy prices, the global clean energy investment is still as high as $ 329 billion, a new high record; renewable electricity installed capacity grew more than 30%, which is 64 million kilowatts of wind power, solar PV is 57 million kilowatts . At the same time, nearly 10 years of global natural gas production, consumption reached an average annual growth rate of more than 2%, only second to renewable energy. In 2016, global gas production will to 3.76 trillion cubic meters, an increase of 2.5%; demand of 3.55 trillion cubic meters, an increase of 2%.
On the other hand, solar, wind and other representative of the new energy technologies such as the Internet and new energy technologies continue to make breakthroughs, to promote the rapid development of new energy sources. Solar photovoltaic cell technology innovation capacity has increased significantly, the current commercialization of polycrystalline silicon cell module conversion efficiency of about 16% in the future. PV cell conversion efficiency is expected to increase to 24%, the cost of photovoltaic electricity will drop to 0.4-0.5 RMB, with considerable coal .
The next generation of larger wind turbines available in higher airspace have strong and sustained wind resources prediction fan can be increased to an average height of 110 meters, the development of wind power turbine area than average height of 80 meters by 54%, and the unit cost of wind power is expected to decline 20% -30%, basically flat with the coal. In 2035 is expected to average annual global renewable energy consumption increased by 6.4%.
At the same time, networking, mobile Internet, big data and cloud computing, Internet technology and the depth of fusion energy technology, distributed energy, smart grid, new energy automotive industry has entered a stage of development, a large number of industrial parks, urban areas, public buildings and private housing has distributed function system, "everyone for all energy production and energy consumption," the new form of production and consumption is gradually taking shape.
20 years of practice shows that the ultimate solution to the problem of global climate, green development must be at the center of the international climate regime. In December 2015, Climate Change Conference in Paris explicitly require States to implement low-carbon transformation growth and energy consumption, the General Assembly reached the "Paris Agreement" laid the broad participation of countries in transition in the basic pattern, established in 2020 after the "national ownership contribution" as the main international mechanism to deal with climate change arrangement, which will greatly promote the global energy consumption from coal and oil to natural gas and new energy transformation.
Currently around 67% of global greenhouse gas emissions associated with energy production and consumption, and to achieve emission reduction targets, "Paris Agreement", countries bound to develop new energy and natural gas. The United States proposed that by 2025 renewable energy accounted for 25% of electricity consumption by 2050 renewable energy accounted for 80% of electricity consumption, accounting for 60% of total energy consumption.
The European Commission proposed that by 2050 renewable energy accounted for 80% of electricity consumption, accounting for 60% of total energy consumption. Denmark proposed that by 2050 all the electricity comes from renewable energy sources. Our voluntary action plan to address climate change required to achieve 2030 emissions peak. In short, the development of green energy has become a global consensus, low-carbon clean is the tendency.
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