The Trend of Solar Light Market in Africa

Market Definition and scope

India as the main force in Asia is the largest market, but the population speed and low-speed expansion of the Asian means that as Africa as of 2030, the grid will cover 700 million people, which in the next 20 years will become the dominant advantage market.

The figure is the population concentrated areas have electricity, not surprisingly, most of the off-grid product launch will focus on Africa and South Asia.

A variety of factors low grid penetration, large population base, coupled with continued population growth, high energy prices and low urbanization, etc., driven by these two regions become high-value market for solar portable products. Concentrated demand from Africa and South Asia is obvious.

Price advantage of portable solar products for solar powered portable generator

Part of the core comprises: (1) solar panels (2) the battery (3) light source (4) charge controller, (5) light boxes.

Cost components can be decomposed into the design and manufacture, including specific analysis is as follows:

Solar

Most portable solar lighting to crystalline silicon-based solar photovoltaic panels today, but the use of amorphous silicon thin film technology is also a small part of increase. Both techniques make solar portable lighting devices will continue to decrease in the following, there may be significantly reduced.

Battery

Another advanced battery selector appears the impact of the introduction of new technologies to change the component costs.

LED

All industry believes that LED is the fastest product of reduce cost, lightweight resource. Light emitting diode (LED) will be reduced to 75% in 2015, will be reduced 94% in 2020. The following paragraphs demonstrate between 2010-2030, the forecast of reduce the cost of LED lights and LED quality .

Future

According to the trend, predict solar portable component costs will be reduced by 40% in 2015. At the same time, such as kerosene lamps and other more common off-grid lighting solutions, the number of users will continue to increase. Two trends combined to reduce the payback period of sustainable lighting.

With the 40% reduction of costs, (part of distribution costs at a fixed interest rate decrease) investment recovery period will be reduced to five months.

Assumed to remove tariff barriers in the Africa region, more through scale, reducing distribution costs, while in the next five years, solar portable lighting carbon emissions introduced the Clean Development Mechanism, the payback period can be even further reduced to two months, compared with today's portable solar lighting costs averaged more than $ 40, the cost is only $ 20 after introduction.

The above analysis, relies on multiple sources, it is difficult to test hypotheses, but there is no doubt that solar portable lighting market is not only more attractive and a better investment, but also for the African families are more practical choice.

Technology Improvement

The price of solar portable lighting components will continue to promote the reduction of its quality improvement. In the next five years, when the average cost of each lighting equipment reached $ 20, you can buy quite different quality or quantity of components.

Solar Panel: 4 Watt panel and 2-2.5 Watt of today

Light source: 3 times than current LED performance

Battery: lighter, cleaner, more than 2 times the energy storage capacity lithium battery, large-scale alternative to lead-acid battery technology out

Components: The charging control, multiple brightness settings, mobile charger and so on

In 2010 to 2030, all to improve the quality of lighting, while 2015 is expected to average more than 200 energy-efficient LED brightness per watt, LED average energy efficiency improvement rate reached 260%. This makes solar lighting can provide more illumination in the future even less energy.

Battery characteristics and trends: LED lighting is not only to appear in the dominant advantage in a portable solar lighting market, but also expanded the use of other advanced technologies such as battery options, such as nickel-metal hydride batteries and lithium batteries greatly alternative low-cost / low-power lead-acid batteries. From most of the battery market analysis reflects, LED / CFL (mainly energy-saving lamps) lighting in all, of which 33% of lead-acid batteries, nickel-metal hydride battery using the 60% and 7% using lithium or nickel-cadmium batteries. Although lithium batteries have high energy density and durability, but because of its high cost, so it is only a small part of the market share, but we interviewed expressed a growing number of market participants will be in the near future, when lithium ions technology and LED technology combine breakthrough lighting quality finishing, it will be more lithium battery(such as LiFePO4 battery pack) into the camp.

Leadership / energy-saving lamp market in these cells break down largely reflects the LED / energy-saving lamps and lanterns 33% (mainly CFLs) use of lead-acid batteries, the use of 60% lithium-ion or nickel-cadmium and nickel-hydrogen 7% . Despite the high energy density and durability of the lithium-ion small market share due to the high cost, but many market participants we interviewed expressed a desire to turn the lithium ion in the near future, resulting in a potential breakthrough in the overall combination of quality lanterns and LED technology.

Solar battery quality: As discussed above, the trend in prices of solar cells, solar panels as part of the improvement of energy efficiency will be driven to reduce their costs.

Global industry trends - supply and distribution

Currently scattered solar lighting market, there are some new players to enter the market every year , but only 5-10 very large manufacturers can occupy about 50% of total sales.

In Africa, the main driver of demand for portable lighting grid development, pricing, product design, kerosene prices, and moving mesh charging requirements - part of a global trend.

The next five years, the development of portable lighting possibilities are endless.

Minimum value: 40-50% CAGR

Highest: 80-90% compound annual growth rate, based on the growth of mobile phone case

A conservative estimate: 65%

Because the new technology of portable lighting, high investment and long payback period, so that consumer education will significantly affect the acceptance of portable lighting. Recent analysis of whether consumers are willing to pay for portable lighting proves this point, showing experienced users of the product are more than willing to buy unused portable lighting to the specific circumstances, beyond the 1.3-5 times.

Import tariff systems and procedures

To sum up:

Through discussions LED lighting market momentum and trends, summarize market size and market necessity, we see exciting market prospects and constraints. So, we need to look back in order to find the best solution.

Technological innovation: the same price today, extended lamp life and battery have twice cycle life

Kerosene prices by 9% annual growth rate

Social and economic necessity based on the Government to abolish tariffs small lighting market

Kerosene and accessories based budget pressures and policies to encourage, to reduce production

A credible platform, carbon credits through a portable lighting

Promote competition issuance costs reduced by 20%